<p>Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump" target="_blank">Trump</a>'s political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/02/vance-wsj-trump-rubio-2028" target="_blank">Vance</a>, onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms.</p><p><strong>Why it matters: </strong>Republicans are struggling up and down the ballot in the Rust Belt state, which transformed from a perennial battleground into a Republican stronghold under Trump.</p><hr><ul><li>Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-class rebellion. </li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> The most immediate concern is the race in northeastern Ohio's normally red 7th House District, where Rep. Max Miller faces allegations that he abused his ex-wife and daughter, which Miller has denied.</p><ul><li>Trump, who previously called the allegations a family matter, phoned Miller on Monday and expressed worries about his candidacy, three sources briefed on the call told Axios.</li><li>"It's not looking good for you," the president told Miller, the sources said. "I'm hearing from people you're not going to win."</li><li>Miller told Trump he was staying in the race.</li></ul><p><strong>For Ohio Republicans, </strong>Miller's situation has muddied their prospects in a November election that will be a key test of whether Trump's populist coalition can withstand the growing discontent with his war in Iran and the economy.</p><ul><li>Republicans now say they'll spend tens of millions of dollars in Ohio races they once were heavily favored to win this fall.</li><li>It's a striking turn of events: Two years ago, Trump won Ohio by 11 points — the largest margin in Ohio<strong> </strong>for any winning presidential candidate in four decades.</li><li>"Ohio is ground zero<strong> </strong>of the environment this cycle," a national Republican strategist tells Axios. "Take a GOP voter depression, mix it with the war in Iran, and now sprinkle with some Max Miller abuse [allegations], and you've got the recipe for a very dicey outcome in November."</li></ul><p><strong>The races giving Republicans the most heartburn:</strong></p><p><strong>1. Miller's debacle</strong></p><p><strong>The ex-wife he's accused of abusing </strong>is Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno.</p><ul><li>Strategists from both parties agree the allegations have helped Democrat Brian Poindexter run neck-and-neck with Miller in the conservative House district. </li><li>Republicans worry that Democrats will run ads tying Miller to other Ohio candidates, who are beginning to face uncomfortable questions about whether they support Miller. </li></ul><p><strong>One leading Republican </strong>definitely does not: Moreno, who over the weekend <a href="https://x.com/berniemoreno/status/2083936589424582942?s=20" target="_blank">said his former son-in-law</a> "should not serve" in Congress and called on him to resign. </p><ul><li>Other Ohio Republicans are holding out hope that Miller quits and is replaced on the ballot by state Sen. Jane Timken — a move that would have to happen by Wednesday.</li><li>But as he told Trump on Monday, Miller has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/08/02/max-miller-moreno-abuse-allegations" target="_blank">vowed to stay in the race</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>2. The Senate race</strong></p><p><strong>Republicans say they've viewed </strong>private polling showing GOP Sen. Jon Husted in a dead heat against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.</p><ul><li>Brown, a populist-minded Democrat who served three terms before losing his seat to Moreno in 2024, has outraised Husted by nearly 3 to 1. </li><li>Republicans concede Brown has found a potent line of attack against Husted by casting him as "<a href="https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/2074493471247728721" target="_blank">the face of data centers in Ohio</a>."</li><li>Some Republicans worry that Husted has run a lackluster campaign and hasn't distinguished himself since being appointed to succeed Vance last year.</li></ul><p><strong>But a senior Republican </strong>told Axios that Husted has taken steps to get on track, including by hiring veteran strategist Matt Mason to help oversee his campaign.</p><ul><li>Others noted that Moreno was trailing Brown at this point two years ago, but ended up winning by 4 points.</li></ul><p><strong>3. The governor's race</strong></p><p><strong>Polls are showing </strong>former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a neck-and-neck race against Democrat Amy Acton.</p><ul><li>Some Republicans say Ramaswamy, an Ivy League-educated former biotech investor, has struggled to win over the state's blue-collar voters. </li><li>He's also faced some backlash from conservatives, particularly over his support for developing data centers for AI. He was <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/republican-booed-while-addressing-students-060813902.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL7-XqyDnvuy8pZiepjHNBKCYYTaYBhxNgXTY-GwhcbkoAJf5OkF9BvOhSQ-C8pk9R9qRtow866xeqkT4vs8EaYsUEuh9wWlc_g9Ph8hM0Tk06ObWp6sYKYgedxnknfepyuvEwulEmTvC9vwzzW4vG6wd1sSI-ZyU4WuwkgMTNkJ" target="_blank">heckled</a> at a libertarian conference last week.</li></ul><p><strong>Still, Republicans say Ramaswamy </strong>appears to be in better shape than Miller or Husted, and that he's the most likely of the three to win in November.</p><p><strong>What we're watching: </strong>Some Republicans fear the party's struggles in Ohio could signal broader weakness across blue-collar states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.</p>